Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk
"a fresh, thorough and practicable book for anyone who wants to sharpen their macroeconomic judgment, structured in an easily accessible and insightful manner. It offers an invaluable framework to better understand growth, the financial sector and the key trends shaping the global economy." -- Financial Times
An essential new guide to navigating macroeconomic risk.
The shocks and crises of recent years--pandemic, recession, inflation, war--have forced executives and investors to recognize that the macroeconomy is now a risk to be actively managed. Yet unreliable forecasting, pervasive doomsaying, and whipsawing data severely hamper the task of decoding the landscape. Are disruptions transient and ephemeral--or permanent and structural? False alarms are costly traps, but so are true structural changes that go undetected.
How can leaders avoid these macro traps to make better tactical and strategic decisions?
In this perspective-shifting book, BCG Chief Economist Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and Senior Economist Paul Swartz provide a fresh and accessible way to assess macroeconomic risk. Casting doubt on conventional model-based thinking, they demonstrate a more powerful approach to building sound macroeconomic judgment. Using incisive analysis built upon frameworks, historical context, and structural narratives--what they call "economic eclecticism"--the book empowers readers with the durable skills to assess continuously evolving risks in the real economy, the financial system, and the geopolitical arena.
Moreover, the authors' more nuanced approach reveals that the all-too-common narratives of economic collapse and decline are often false alarms themselves, while the fundamental strengths of our current "era of tightness" become visible.
With rational optimism rather than gloom, Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms speaks to the key financial and macroeconomic controversies that define our times--and provides a compass for navigating the global economy. Rather than relying on blinking dashboards or flashy headlines, leaders can and should judge macroeconomic risks for themselves.
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Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak is BCG's Global Chief Economist and a managing director and partner in the firm's New York office.
Paul Swartz is Senior Economist and executive director at BCG. He coleads the Center for Macroeconomics at the BCG Henderson Institute in New York.
The authors use their ongoing tactical and strategic research to advise executives and investors on macroeconomic risk, and they frequently publish and comment on the macroeconomy in Harvard Business Review, Fortune, World Economic Forum Agenda, and other business publications.
"...this is a stimulating primer on how business leaders can keep abreast of changing economic tides." -- Publisher's Weekly
"a fresh, thorough and practicable book for anyone who wants to sharpen their macroeconomic judgment, structured in an easily accessible and insightful manner. It offers an invaluable framework to better understand growth, the financial sector and the key trends shaping the global economy." -- Financial Times
Advance Praise for Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms:
"A provocative, pragmatic, and didactic take on a topic that is top of mind for corporate leaders around the world. A rich tapestry of insight . . . for anyone seeking a deeper understanding of the intricacies of macroeconomics." -- Andre Maciel, Global CFO, Kraft Heinz
"Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms brings great clarity to the macroeconomic realities leaders need to understand . . . This book helped ground my thinking and understanding of global uncertainties." -- Miki Tsusaka, President, Microsoft Japan
"The authors refreshingly argue that it is misplaced to believe in silver-bullet models. With this book, everyone can learn to navigate what may come." -- Ali Dibadj, CEO, Janus Henderson
"A valuable framework to improve decision-making in an uncertain world. The authors replace the false precision of point forecasts with an analytical focus on the economic drivers that shape risk." -- Tom Luddy, former Chief Investment Officer, J.P. Morgan Investment Management
"A tour de force! The authors combine the skills of economist, Wall Street analyst, and historian to bring a unique perspective to the issues that drive economic risk. And an enjoyable read to boot!" -- Colin McGranahan, Global Director of Research, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.
"Timeless, compelling, and thought-provoking, the book also provides a framework for strengthening your own judgment." -- Frank Brosens, member of the Board of Directors, Peterson Institute of International Economics; cofounder, Taconic Capital
"A vital guide to thinking about macroeconomic risks." -- Brad Setser, Whitney Shepardson Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations
"A compass for navigating macroeconomic risk. . . . A must-read for those seeking a nuanced understanding of macroeconomics." -- Hon. Bill Morneau, former Minister of Finance, Canada
"A great book . . . The focus on underlying drivers to form judgments I found to be very impactful." -- Thomas Sweet, former CFO, Dell Technologies
